Checking connection
Continuum Investment Fund LP
Fund
LPs: money in against now
Robuxio against what we put in
HWM is net contributedRobuxio
Current value · —
Recorded returns include paid costs. Fee scenarios are optional; the 1% expense cap is not an extra charge.
Source and calculation details
Use only dates shared by every connected account:
Monthly returns
Selected period · * partial month · n/a means missing daily coverage
Accounts
| Account | Balance | USD | Our P&L | Strategy return | Weight |
|---|
Reconciliation with Formidium
Robuxio detail Performance, risk, contributions and class GAV
Performance and fee methodology
Fee switches model additional deductions on the source return, not actual investor net NAV or a verified gross return. Already-paid, unidentified manager fees remain embedded and cannot be grossed up. Do not use the scenario as a payable.
After fees: SAT takes 25% of each SAT account's value above its net contributed. Robuxio then takes 30% of what the whole Robuxio investment, after SAT's cut, holds above its net contributed. Neither has billed a performance fee, so both HWMs are simply what we put in, moving with deposits and withdrawals. A fee owed is a liability today: the after-fees line sits below the before-fees line by exactly what would be owed, and matches it when nothing is. SFOX managers: 30% of each account above its own net contributed, in its own unit, on the same no-reset basis. On the Fund line, Continuum's 3% a year is also taken, prorated daily. Octave fee terms are not applied. Changing the chart period does not reset anything.
Paid fees and expense withdrawals reduce custody balances. The 1% expense cap is a ceiling, not an automatic extra fee. Unpaid accruals, cap releases and deferred reimbursements require the administrator ledger; this view does not subtract them again.
Missing observations are unavailable, never zero. Common-coverage history begins only when every included account is observed. Owned-account return history begins only where the balances and capital movements can be reconciled. Unknown transfers break performance coverage. Matrixport and banks are outside connected custody. Historical statement values are shown separately and are not added to live totals.
Who to trust, and how much
Overview
| Evidence | Status | Funded live | Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
How returns move together
Correlations
Loading return streams
How returns move together
Correlations
Manager correlation matrix
ⓘ How to read correlation
+1 means returns move together, 0 means no linear relationship, and −1 means they move in opposite directions. Correlation measures consistency, not how large the moves are.
BTC up days are completed UTC days when BTC gained more than 0%; down days are days it lost more than 0%. These are daily groups, not long bull or bear markets. Overall includes flat BTC days.
Pearson correlation uses matching daily USD returns. Keep observed zero returns; exclude missing dates, unfinished days and gaps between sources. Each number needs at least 30 matching days; fewer than 150 is labelled limited. Flat returns have no defined correlation.
Mo uses his labelled backtest, converted from BTC returns to USD at matching daily BTC closes. Other rows use their named history and available SFOX returns, with SFOX taking priority on overlapping dates. A backtest is simulated, not live evidence. The matrix uses the selected market-day filter.
Not enough return history to calculate correlations.
How to read this page
Evidence tier
Each record carries its own source. Live · API verified is the funded exchange account. API verified history is exchange-sourced history, including archived keys. CSV (not API verified) is manager-reported history. A live account does not independently verify an older CSV. Manager API is manager-published data, not exchange verification.
Observed Sharpe
Return per unit of risk, computed from the record we can actually see (exchange API, or CSV when that is all there is). Sharpe ≈ annualized return ÷ annualized volatility. Rule of thumb: 1 is respectable, 2 is very good, 3+ over a long record is exceptional (or a red flag on a short one). It says nothing about where the returns came from — a Sharpe earned on Bybit perps is not automatically achievable on SFOX spot.
SFOX model Sharpe
The manager re-models their strategy as if it had traded on SFOX spot — real venue constraints, spot-only instruments, estimated fees. This is what they claim our account should look like. The small print under it shows the model minus the observed record: a big positive gap means they are promising SFOX will be better than what they demonstrably did elsewhere — treat that with suspicion; a negative gap (drag) is the honest cost of moving venues. Where the manager already trades pure spot (SmartTech), there is no separate model — the record is the SFOX-style record, so the same number is shown.
Shrunk Sharpe
The observed Sharpe is what the record says; the shrunk Sharpe is what the length of that record can support. Start from a prior that assumes no skill (mean 0, SD 1.0 — a true Sharpe of 2 is a two-sigma manager), then weight the observed number by how precisely it was measured: weight = prior variance ÷ (prior variance + SE²), with SE ≈ √((365 + Sharpe²/2) ÷ days). A multi-year record keeps most of its Sharpe; a two-month record collapses toward zero on its own. Judge managers on the shrunk number and watch it climb as the live record grows — that is the same statistic as the t-stat, expressed as something you can compare to your allocation bar. One honesty rule: separate exchange keys are separate accounts, so managers with several keys (Zavara) are scored on the most recent key only — stitching accounts overstates the sample. For CSVs the math is identical but the inputs are unverified; that risk lives in the Evidence chip, not the formula.
Funded live
Our own SFOX account with real money, measured independently with deposits and withdrawals removed. Small and short for everyone right now, so expect it to look unimpressive — its job is to slowly confirm (or contradict) everything to its left as it grows.
Drawdowns
No funded accounts yet.
Drawdown is the decline from a high-water mark, not the return since funding. Policy: freeze additions at 5% daily-close drawdown, review a 50% withdrawal at 10% daily-close drawdown, and review flattening at 15% intraday. Daily NAV closes at 00:00 UTC and uses daily-close peaks; intraday drawdown includes hourly and minute peaks. Statistical model bands are separate context. Alerts do not execute trades.
How the risk lines work
75th percentile: one in four simulated paths reaches this drawdown.
90th percentile: one in ten simulated paths reaches this drawdown.
95th percentile: one in twenty simulated paths reaches this drawdown. These model levels are not automatic policy actions or proof a strategy has failed.
Funded SFOX accounts · performance, exposure and positions
Live
| Manager | Denomination | Balance, USD | Return | Max drawdown | History |
|---|
Live Performance
—Open SFOX positions
—0 open SFOX positions.
Simulation assumptions
The simulation resamples blocks of recorded returns to estimate drawdowns at the 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles. Results depend on the selected record, horizon and assumptions. They do not establish whether a strategy is healthy or broken.
These bands are research context. The existing 5% / 10% daily and 15% intraday policy remains separately labeled. Manager-specific limits require review.
Centralize risk, decentralize alpha
Analytics
Manager equity curves
Normalized to 100 at each record's real startWeights and volatility
Weights rebalance automatically to 100%| Manager | Record | Base vol | Effective vol | Vol multiplier | Capital weight | Allocation | Risk contrib. |
|---|
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Selected manager
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Equity curve
—Selected window
Statistics
Selected-period risk
Underwater
Trailing risk-adjusted return
Rolling 90-day Sharpe
Track record
Monthly returns
Live account
Rolling gross & net exposure · % of NAV
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Live SFOX activity
Trades
| Time | Effect | Market | Notional | Realized | Fee | Financing |
|---|
Reference
Details
Production vs full API history · includes earlier testing
Default charts and calculations use Mo's reported production windows: BTC Apr 22, ETH Aug 7, and BTC + ETH Aug 10. BTC includes Apr 22 returns from the Apr 21 UTC close; ETH and BTC + ETH start from their inception day's UTC close. Intraday inception NAV is not reconstructed. Full key retains all earlier API activity separately.
Decision
Trailing 90-day risk
Historical drawdowns
Net by asset
Who traded this
Trades
| Time | Effect | Market | Notional | Realized | Fee | Financing |
|---|
Account & reference
Fidelity
Live account costs
Recorded SFOX fees, coverage, turnover, and drag
Live account costs
Recorded SFOX fees, coverage, turnover, and drag| Account | Equity | Quoted tier | Recorded fee | Fee coverage | Turnover (30d) | Fee drag (30d) |
|---|
Robuxio
Exchange assets and estimated gross performance.
Trading in BTC
Robuxio's own account and SAT's two Binance accounts| Account | Current BTC | BTC return | Last observation |
|---|
BTC return estimates adjust for the timing of recorded capital transfers and include exchange trading costs. SAT combined counts both SAT accounts once. Hourly history is retained; minute observations expire after 24 hours. These are exchange account returns, before additional performance-fee estimates.
Data coverage
Performance
—Deposits and withdrawals
——| Date (UTC) | Type | Asset | Amount | Running contributed | Fund GAV that day |
|---|
No flows recorded.